Quantify how space mission influence geopolitical dynamics? A security and social policy approach

TL;DR

This paper introduces a computational method to assess the geopolitical impact of space missions by analyzing budgets, social sentiment, and reliability data, revealing potential positive or negative effects on national interests.

Contribution

It presents a novel equation that quantifies space mission impacts on geopolitics, integrating social sentiment and security considerations for policy and decision-making.

Findings

Successful missions can still negatively affect international relations.

The proposed model estimates public opinion and geopolitical risks.

Space mission outcomes influence national security and social policies.

Abstract

We present a computational method to quantify the geopolitical impact of a space mission, based on the national budget and data logs of previous missions, and evidencing how even if some missions succeed, they can bring negative effects to the sponsored country. The objective of this research is to study how the success (or failure) of a space mission can bring an economical and political benefit (or loss) to a country. By retrieving various data, including sentiment from #hashtags related to the considered space missions, national budgets for space exploration, and the reliability of space launch systems, from social networks, public institutions, and online repositories, we propose an equation to evaluate the geopolitical importance of a space mission for a particular country or space agency. The geopolitical equation can be used by public institutions or private companies to estimate the potential impact of a space mission on public opinion and international relationships, which can be either positive or negative, as even successful missions may negatively affect international relationships and negotiations with some countries and their partners. Also we combine the ideology of classic social policy with a security and space mission point of view, to enlighten cultural, institutional, and political limits in public spending decisions.