Is the $F_{10.7cm}$ -- Sunspot Number relation linear and stable ?

TL;DR

This study refines the proxy relation between $F_{10.7cm}$ radio flux and Sunspot Number using polynomial regressions, revealing scale-dependent linearity, background flux variability, and a significant inhomogeneity in the data series.

Contribution

It introduces a 4th-degree polynomial proxy relation, analyzes the effects of temporal averaging, and identifies a data inhomogeneity, improving long-term solar activity indices.

Findings

A 4th-degree polynomial provides a more accurate proxy.

The relation is linear for raw daily data but non-linear after averaging.

An inhomogeneity in the $F_{10.7}$ series was detected around 1980-1981.

Abstract

The $F_{10.7cm}$ radio flux and the Sunspot Number are the most widely used long-term indices of solar activity. They are strongly correlated, which led to the publication of many proxy relations allowing to convert one index onto the other. However, those existing proxies show significant disagreements, in particular at low solar activity. Our aim is to bring a global clarification of those many issues. We compute new polynomial regressions up to degree 4, in order to obtain a more accurate proxy. We also study the role of temporal averaging on the regression, and we investigate the issue of the all-quiet $F_{10.7}$ background flux. Finally, we check for any change in the $F_{10.7}$ -- sunspot number relation over the entire period 1947 -- 2015. We find that, with a $4^{th}$-degree polynomial, we obtain a more accurate proxy relation than all previous published ones, and we derive a formula giving standard errors. The relation is different for daily, monthly and yearly mean values, and it proves to be fully linear for raw non-averaged daily data. By a simple two-component model for daily values, we show how temporal averaging leads to non-linear proxy relations. We also show that the quiet-Sun $F_{10.7}$ background is not absolute and actually depends on the duration of the spotless periods. Finally, we find that the $F_{10.7cm}$ time series is inhomogeneous, with an abrupt 10.5% upward jump occurring between 1980 and 1981. Our new proxy relations show the importance of temporal scale for choosing the appropriate proxy and the $F_{10.7}$ quiet-Sun background level. From historical evidence, we conclude that the 1981 jump is most likely due to a unique change in the $F_{10.7}$ scientific team and the data processing, and that the newly re-calibrated sunspot number (version2) will probably provide the only possible reference to correct this inhomogeneity.