Common patterns between dengue cases, climate, and local environmental variables in Costa Rica: A Wavelet Approach

TL;DR

This study uses wavelet analysis to identify how climate and environmental factors influence dengue outbreaks in Costa Rica, revealing seasonal and multi-year patterns linked to climate oscillations and local variables.

Contribution

It applies wavelet coherence analysis to connect climate/environmental variables with dengue incidence across Costa Rican cantons, highlighting temporal relationships and regional differences.

Findings

Dengue outbreaks every 3 years are coherent with El Niño indices.

Dengue cases lead climate variables by approximately 9 months.

Local environmental factors are in phase with dengue and lead by about 3 months.

Abstract

Throughout history, prevention and control of dengue transmission have challenged public health authorities worldwide. In the last decades, the interaction of multiple factors, such as environmental and climate variability, has influenced increments in incidence and geographical spread of the virus. In Costa Rica, a country characterized by multiple microclimates separated by short distances, dengue has been endemic since its introduction in 1993. Understanding the role of climatic and environmental factors in the seasonal and inter-annual variability of disease spread is essential to develop effective surveillance and control efforts. In this study, we conducted a wavelet time series analysis of weekly climate, local environmental variables, and dengue cases (2001-2019) from 32 cantons in Costa Rica to identify significant periods (e.g., annual, biannual) in which climate and environmental variables co-varied with dengue cases. Wavelet coherence analysis was used to characterize seasonality, multi-year outbreaks, and relative delays between the time series. Results show that dengue outbreaks occurring every 3 years in cantons located in the country's Central, North, and South Pacific regions were highly coherent with the Oceanic Ni\~no 3.4 and the Tropical North Caribbean Index (TNA). Dengue cases were in phase with El Ni\~no 3.4 and TNA, with El Ni\~no 3.4 ahead of dengue cases by roughly nine months and TNA ahead by less than three months. Annual dengue outbreaks were coherent with local environmental variables (NDWI, EVI, Evapotranspiration, and Precipitation) in most cantons except those located in the Central, South Pacific, and South Caribbean regions of the country. The local environmental variables were in phase with dengue cases and were ahead by around three months.