Data-driven modelling of turbine wake interactions and flow resistance in large wind farms

TL;DR

This paper introduces a data-driven emulator for turbine wake effects in large wind farms, combining low- and high-fidelity simulations to accurately predict flow interactions and improve wind farm performance modeling.

Contribution

It develops a multi-fidelity Gaussian Process model for turbine thrust coefficient prediction, enhancing accuracy and computational efficiency over existing methods.

Findings

Multi-fidelity GP outperforms single-fidelity models in accuracy.

Model enables fast, reliable wind farm performance predictions.

Potential to improve energy yield estimates and farm optimization.

Abstract

Turbine wake and local blockage effects are known to alter wind farm power production in two different ways: (1) by changing the wind speed locally in front of each turbine; and (2) by changing the overall flow resistance in the farm and thus the so-called farm blockage effect. To better predict these effects with low computational costs, we develop data-driven emulators of the `local' or `internal' turbine thrust coefficient $C_T^*$ as a function of turbine layout. We train the model using a multi-fidelity Gaussian Process (GP) regression with a combination of low (engineering wake model) and high-fidelity (Large-Eddy Simulations) simulations of farms with different layouts and wind directions. A large set of low-fidelity data speeds up the learning process and the high-fidelity data ensures a high accuracy. The trained multi-fidelity GP model is shown to give more accurate predictions of $C_T^*$ compared to a standard (single-fidelity) GP regression applied only to a limited set of high-fidelity data. We also use the multi-fidelity GP model of $C_T^*$ with the two-scale momentum theory (Nishino \& Dunstan 2020, J. Fluid Mech. 894, A2) to demonstrate that the model can be used to give fast and accurate predictions of large wind farm performance under various mesoscale atmospheric conditions. This new approach could be beneficial for improving annual energy production (AEP) calculations and farm optimisation in the future.