Adapting Node-Place Model to Predict and Monitor COVID-19 Footprints and Transmission Risks

TL;DR

This study adapts the node-place model to analyze COVID-19 transmission risks by examining station-level factors and mobility patterns, providing a new approach to predict and monitor pandemic hotspots in urban settings.

Contribution

It introduces a novel adaptation of the node-place model for COVID-19 risk assessment and utilizes detailed visit data to identify factors influencing virus footprints.

Findings

High node, place, and mobility indices correlate with more COVID-19 footprints.

Multivariate regression shows significant impact of various indicators on footprints.

Model helps predict and monitor COVID-19 hotspots effectively.

Abstract

The node-place model has been widely used to classify and evaluate transit stations, which sheds light on individual travel behaviors and supports urban planning through effectively integrating land use and transportation development. This article adapts this model to investigate whether and how node, place, and mobility would be associated with the transmission risks and presences of the local COVID-19 cases in a city. Similar studies on the model and its relevance to COVID-19, according to our knowledge, have not been undertaken before. Moreover, the unique metric drawn from detailed visit history of the infected, i.e., the COVID-19 footprints, is proposed and exploited. This study then empirically uses the adapted model to examine the station-level factors affecting the local COVID-19 footprints. The model accounts for traditional measures of the node and place as well as actual human mobility patterns associated with the node and place. It finds that stations with high node, place, and human mobility indices normally have more COVID-19 footprints in proximity. A multivariate regression is fitted to see whether and to what degree different indices and indicators can predict the COVID-19 footprints. The results indicate that many of the place, node, and human mobility indicators significantly impact the concentration of COVID-19 footprints. These are useful for policy-makers to predict and monitor hotspots for COVID-19 and other pandemics transmission.