Violence in Guatemala pushes adults and children to seek work in Mexico

TL;DR

This study examines how violence in Guatemala influences emigration to Mexico, finding that increased violence significantly raises crossings by adults and children, with causal links established through instrumental variables related to deforestation and cocaine seizures.

Contribution

It provides causal evidence that violence driven by criminal activities in Guatemala increases emigration, using innovative instruments like deforestation and cocaine seizures to identify effects.

Findings

A one-point increase in homicide rate differential leads to 211 more male adult crossings.

Violence also causes 20 additional child crossings.

The study establishes a causal link between violence and emigration using instrumental variables.

Abstract

This article estimates the impact of violence on emigration crossings from Guatemala to Mexico as final destination during 2009-2017. To identify causal effects, we use as instruments the variation in deforestation in Guatemala, and the seizing of cocaine in Colombia. We argue that criminal organizations deforest land in Guatemala, fueling violence and leading to emigration, particularly during exogenous supply shocks to cocaine. A one-point increase in the homicide rate differential between Guatemalan municipalities and Mexico, leads to 211 additional emigration crossings made by male adults. This rise in violence, also leads to 20 extra emigration crossings made by children.