Global LCOEs of decentralized off-grid renewable energy systems

TL;DR

This review analyzes global levelized costs of electricity for decentralized off-grid renewable systems, highlighting cost reductions, variability, and factors affecting cost estimates to guide deployment and future research.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive overview of LCOE ranges, trends, and key factors influencing cost estimates for off-grid renewable energy systems worldwide.

Findings

LCOEs range from 0.03 to over 1.00 USD/kWh globally.

Average LCOE decreased by 9% annually from 2016 to 2021.

Seven key reasons cause over- or underestimation of LCOEs in literature.

Abstract

Recent global events emphasize the importance of a reliable energy supply. One way to increase energy supply security is through decentralized off-grid renewable energy systems, for which a growing number of case studies are researched. This review gives a global overview of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for these autonomous energy systems, which range from 0.03 \$_{2021}/kWh to over 1.00 \$_{2021}/kWh worldwide. The average LCOEs for 100% renewable energy systems have decreased by 9% annually between 2016 and 2021 from 0.54 \$_{2021}/kWh to 0.29 \$_{2021}/kWh, presumably due to cost reductions in renewable energy and storage technologies. Furthermore, we identify and discuss seven key reasons why LCOEs are frequently overestimated or underestimated in literature, and how this can be prevented in the future. Our overview can be employed to verify findings on off-grid systems, to assess where these systems might be deployed and how costs evolve.