Leveraging Wastewater Monitoring for COVID-19 Forecasting in the US: a Deep Learning study

TL;DR

This study demonstrates that deep learning models, especially the Temporal Fusion Transformer, effectively leverage wastewater viral load data to improve COVID-19 case forecasting across different locations.

Contribution

It introduces a deep learning approach that integrates wastewater viral load data with socio-economic factors for enhanced COVID-19 forecasting.

Findings

Viral load data significantly improves forecast accuracy.

TFT outperforms DeepTCN in modeling COVID-19 dynamics.

Viral load is the second most predictive feature after containment measures.

Abstract

The outburst of COVID-19 in late 2019 was the start of a health crisis that shook the world and took millions of lives in the ensuing years. Many governments and health officials failed to arrest the rapid circulation of infection in their communities. The long incubation period and the large proportion of asymptomatic cases made COVID-19 particularly elusive to track. However, wastewater monitoring soon became a promising data source in addition to conventional indicators such as confirmed daily cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Despite the consensus on the effectiveness of wastewater viral load data, there is a lack of methodological approaches that leverage viral load to improve COVID-19 forecasting. This paper proposes using deep learning to automatically discover the relationship between daily confirmed cases and viral load data. We trained one Deep Temporal Convolutional Networks (DeepTCN) and one Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) model to build a global forecasting model. We supplement the daily confirmed cases with viral loads and other socio-economic factors as covariates to the models. Our results suggest that TFT outperforms DeepTCN and learns a better association between viral load and daily cases. We demonstrated that equipping the models with the viral load improves their forecasting performance significantly. Moreover, viral load is shown to be the second most predictive input, following the containment and health index. Our results reveal the feasibility of training a location-agnostic deep-learning model to capture the dynamics of infection diffusion when wastewater viral load data is provided.