Converting College Football Point Spread Differentials to Probabilities

TL;DR

This paper introduces a method to convert NCAA football point spread differentials into probabilities, helping sports bettors identify positive expected value bets by adjusting for common score differentials using historical data.

Contribution

We develop a novel technique that modifies probabilities based on a normal distribution and historical data, providing a practical online tool for bettors.

Findings

More accurate probability estimates for common point differentials

A freely available online tool for implementation

Enhanced decision-making for sports betting

Abstract

For NCAA football, we provide a method for sports bettors to determine if they have a positive expected value bet based on the betting lines available to them and how they believe the game will end. The method we develop modifies probabilities based on a normal distribution using historical data. The result is that more common point differentials are given appropriate weights. We provide a freely available online tool for implementing our technique.