Comparative Analysis of Engagement, Themes, and Causality of Ukraine-Related Debunks and Disinformation

TL;DR

This study quantitatively compares the spread of Ukraine-related disinformation and its debunks, analyzes their causal relationship, and investigates thematic and spatial distribution patterns to inform better fact-checking strategies.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive quantitative comparison of disinformation and debunk spread, applies causal analysis methods, and identifies thematic and linguistic collaboration opportunities.

Findings

Disinformation spreads wider than debunks despite platform efforts.

Debunks positively impact reducing disinformation over time.

18% of fact-checks are in languages already covered by other debunks.

Abstract

This paper compares quantitatively the spread of Ukraine-related disinformation and its corresponding debunks, first by considering re-tweets, replies, and favourites, which demonstrate that despite platform efforts Ukraine-related disinformation is still spreading wider than its debunks. Next, bidirectional post-hoc analysis is carried out using Granger causality tests, impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decomposition, which demonstrate that the spread of debunks has a positive impact on reducing Ukraine-related disinformation eventually, albeit not instantly. Lastly, the paper investigates the dominant themes in Ukraine-related disinformation and their spatiotemporal distribution. With respect to debunks, we also establish that around 18% of fact-checks are debunking claims which have already been fact-checked in another language. The latter finding highlights an opportunity for better collaboration between fact-checkers, so they can benefit from and amplify each other's debunks through translation, citation, and early publication online.