A scale of interpretation for likelihood ratios and Bayes factors

TL;DR

This paper proposes an objective scale for interpreting likelihood ratios and Bayes factors by modeling their effect on belief, resulting in a scale with base 3.73 that aligns with previous subjective proposals.

Contribution

It introduces a new, more objective scale for interpreting evidence strength in likelihood ratios and Bayes factors based on belief modeling.

Findings

The scale with base 3.73 aligns with previous subjective proposals.

The model explains intuitions behind evidence interpretation.

Provides a more objective framework for Bayesian evidence assessment.

Abstract

Several subjective proposals have been made for interpreting the strength of evidence in likelihood ratios and Bayes factors. I identify a more objective scaling by modelling the effect of evidence on belief. The resulting scale with base 3.73 aligns with previous proposals and may partly explain intuitions.