A Punctuated Equilibrium Analysis of the Climate Evolution of Cenozoic exhibits a Hierarchy of Abrupt Transitions

TL;DR

This paper analyzes Earth's climate history by identifying and ranking abrupt transitions using high-resolution datasets, recurrence analysis, and dynamical landscape modeling, revealing a hierarchy of climate tipping points over millions of years.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach combining recurrence analysis and quasi-potential theory to detect and interpret hierarchical climate regime shifts in Cenozoic history.

Findings

Identification of key abrupt climate transitions

Hierarchical structure of climate tipping points

Dynamical landscape model of climate evolution

Abstract

The Earth's climate has experienced numerous critical transitions during its history, which have often been accompanied by massive and rapid changes in the biosphere. Such transitions are evidenced in various proxy records covering different timescales. The goal is then to identify, date, and rank past critical transitions in terms of importance, thus possibly yielding a more thorough perspective on climatic history. To illustrate such an angle, which inspired the punctuated equilibrium angle on the theory of evolution, we have analyzed 2 key high-resolution datasets: the CENOGRID marine compilation (past 66 Myr), and North Atlantic U1308 record (past 3.3 Myr). By combining recurrence analysis of the individual time series with a multivariate representation of the system based on the theory of the quasi-potential, we identify the key abrupt transitions associated with major regime changes that differentiate various clusters of climate variability. This allows interpreting the time-evolution of the system as a trajectory taking place in a dynamical landscape, whose multiscale features are associated with a hierarchy of tipping points.