Political Honeymoon Effect on Social Media: Characterizing Social Media Reaction to the Changes of Prime Minister in Japan

TL;DR

This study analyzes 15 years of Twitter data to understand how social media reactions, including sentiment and user dynamics, reflect the honeymoon effect following Japanese prime minister changes.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of social media responses to political leadership changes, revealing patterns in sentiment, topic variation, and user base shifts.

Findings

Social media shows a honeymoon effect at prime minister change timings.

Sentiment varies by topic and differs between prime ministers.

User base significantly changes before and after leadership transitions.

Abstract

New leaders in democratic countries typically enjoy high approval ratings immediately after taking office. This phenomenon is called the honeymoon effect and is regarded as a significant political phenomenon; however, its mechanism remains underexplored. Therefore, this study examines how social media users respond to changes in political leadership in order to better understand the honeymoon effect in politics. In particular, we constructed a 15-year Twitter dataset on eight change timings of Japanese prime ministers consisting of 6.6M tweets and analyzed them in terms of sentiments, topics, and users. We found that, while not always, social media tend to show a honeymoon effect at the change timings of prime minister. The study also revealed that sentiment about prime ministers differed by topic, indicating that public expectations vary from one prime minister to another. Furthermore, the user base was largely replaced before and after the change in the prime minister, and their sentiment was also significantly different. The implications of this study would be beneficial for administrative management.