Characterizing Engagement Dynamics across Topics on Facebook

TL;DR

This study analyzes how controversial topics on Facebook evolve in popularity and engagement, revealing patterns in their dynamics and how early activity can predict future polarization and adverse reactions.

Contribution

It provides a large-scale quantitative analysis of engagement dynamics on Facebook, introducing a method to predict adverse reactions based on initial burstiness.

Findings

Similar engagement patterns across different controversial topics.

Initial burstiness predicts future adverse reactions.

Engagement dynamics follow logistic growth patterns.

Abstract

Social media platforms heavily changed how users consume and digest information and, thus, how the popularity of topics evolves. In this paper, we explore the interplay between the virality of controversial topics and how they may trigger heated discussions and eventually increase users' polarization. We perform a quantitative analysis on Facebook by collecting $\sim57M$ posts from $\sim2M$ pages and groups between 2018 and 2022, focusing on engaging topics involving scandals, tragedies, and social and political issues. Using logistic functions, we quantitatively assess the evolution of these topics finding similar patterns in their engagement dynamics. Finally, we show that initial burstiness may predict the rise of users' future adverse reactions regardless of the discussed topic.