How to Prepare for the Next Pandemic -- Investigation of Correlation Between Food Prices and COVID-19 From Global and Local Perspectives

TL;DR

This paper investigates the correlation between food prices and COVID-19 from global and local perspectives, analyzing how the pandemic influenced food costs and consumer behaviors to inform future pandemic preparedness.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive analysis of food price fluctuations and consumer responses during COVID-19 across multiple countries and regions, highlighting key correlations.

Findings

Food prices increased significantly during COVID-19.

COVID-19 correlates with changes in grocery shopping behaviors.

Global and local data reveal consistent patterns in food price trends.

Abstract

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused enormous disruptions to not only the United States, but also the global economy. Due to the pandemic, issues in the supply chain and concerns about food shortage drove up the food prices. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the prices for food increased 4.1% and 3.7% over the year ended in August 2020 and August 2021, respectively, while the amount of annual increase in the food prices prior to the COVID-19 pandemic is less than 2.0%. Previous studies show that such kinds of exogenous disasters, including the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, 9/11 terrorist attacks, and major infectious diseases, and the resulted unusual food prices often led to subsequent changes in people's consumption behaviors. We hypothesize that the COVID-19 pandemic causes food price changes and the price changes alter people's grocery shopping behaviors as well. To thoroughly explore this, we formulate our analysis from two different perspectives, by collecting data both globally, from China, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States, and locally, from different groups of people inside the US. In particular, we analyze the trends between food prices and COVID-19 as well as between food prices and spending, aiming to find out their correlations and the lessons for preparing the next pandemic.