Effective experience rating for large insurance portfolios via surrogate modeling

TL;DR

This paper introduces a surrogate modeling approach to efficiently and transparently compute Bayesian insurance premiums for large portfolios, replacing costly numerical methods with an analytical approximation.

Contribution

It develops a surrogate model using a likelihood-based summary statistic to approximate Bayesian premiums, enabling fast and interpretable experience rating for large insurance portfolios.

Findings

Reduces computational cost of premium calculation

Provides an analytical, transparent expression for premiums

Applicable to exponential dispersion family distributions

Abstract

Experience rating in insurance uses a Bayesian credibility model to upgrade the current premiums of a contract by taking into account policyholders' attributes and their claim history. Most data-driven models used for this task are mathematically intractable, and premiums must be obtained through numerical methods such as simulation via MCMC. However, these methods can be computationally expensive and even prohibitive for large portfolios when applied at the policyholder level. Additionally, these computations become ``black-box" procedures as there is no analytical expression showing how the claim history of policyholders is used to upgrade their premiums. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a surrogate modeling approach to inexpensively derive an analytical expression for computing the Bayesian premiums for any given model, approximately. As a part of the methodology, the paper introduces a \emph{likelihood-based summary statistic} of the policyholder's claim history that serves as the main input of the surrogate model and that is sufficient for certain families of distribution, including the exponential dispersion family. As a result, the computational burden of experience rating for large portfolios is reduced through the direct evaluation of such analytical expression, which can provide a transparent and interpretable way of computing Bayesian premiums.