Toward Models of Impact and Recovery of the US Western Grid from Earthquake Events

TL;DR

This paper models the impact and recovery of the US Western power grid from a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake, focusing on damage to substations and estimating recovery time using probabilistic and graph-based methods.

Contribution

It introduces a bottom-up probabilistic approach to estimate damage and recovery of power grid substations after a major earthquake, enhancing existing expert assessments.

Findings

Initial damage estimated at 4,000 MW load loss

Recovery time estimated at approximately 230 days

Uses probabilistic damage models and graph techniques

Abstract

A Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake will cause widespread damage to numerous lifelines and infrastructure along the northern US west coast. The goal of the presented research is to provide a bottom up estimate of the impact on and subsequent recovery of a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake on the US western grid to supplement and enhance the expert opinion estimates provided to date. The scope is limited to consideration of shaking damage to utility substation equipment components of a power system model. The analysis utilizes probabilistic models of damage and recovery for substation power system assets, along with graph techniques for modeling connectivity, and Monte Carlo quasi steady state power flow solutions. The results show that a conservative estimate of the initial damage and loss of load is approximately 4,000 MW, with a recovery estimate of 230 days.