Gambling on Momentum

TL;DR

This paper investigates momentum effects in sports betting markets during football matches, analyzing high-frequency odds and stakes to understand bettor behavior and market efficiency.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence on how bettors perceive momentum after goals and its impact on betting behavior and market prices in football matches.

Findings

Bettors stake 40% more on teams with perceived momentum.

No evidence that momentum influences match outcomes or odds.

Betting on momentum leads to substantial losses for bettors.

Abstract

Sports betting markets are proven real-world laboratories to test theories of asset pricing anomalies and risky behaviour. Using a high-frequency dataset provided directly by a major bookmaker, containing the odds and amounts staked throughout German Bundesliga football matches, we test for evidence of momentum in the betting and pricing behaviour after equalising goals. We find that bettors see value in teams that have the apparent momentum, staking about 40% more on them than teams that just conceded an equaliser. Still, there is no evidence that such perceived momentum matters on average for match outcomes or is associated with the bookmaker offering favourable odds. We also confirm that betting on the apparent momentum would lead to substantial losses for bettors.