Poverty, Unemployment and Displacement in Ukraine: three months into the war

TL;DR

This study assesses the immediate socio-economic impacts of the full-scale war in Ukraine, revealing increased unemployment and poverty, especially among women without higher education, highlighting urgent policy needs.

Contribution

It provides the first robust estimates of war-induced poverty, unemployment, and migration effects in Ukraine within three months of conflict escalation.

Findings

Forced migration increases unemployment risk by 7.5%.

Women without higher education face a 9.6-9.9% higher risk of food insecurity.

Unemployment rises among women and men without higher education in conflict regions.

Abstract

This paper identifies the causal effects of full-scale kremlin aggression on socio-economic outcomes in Ukraine three months into the full-scale war. First, forced migration after February 24th, 2022 is associated with an elevated risk of becoming unemployed by 7.5% points. Second, difference-in-difference regressions show that in regions with fighting on the ground females without a higher education face a 9.6-9.9% points higher risk of not having enough money for food. Finally, in the regions subject to ground attack females with and without a higher education, as well as males without a higher education are more likely to become unemployed by 6.1-6.9%, 4.2-4.7% and 6.5-6.6% points correspondingly. This persistent gender gap in poverty and unemployment, when even higher education is not protective for females, calls for policy action. While more accurate results may obtain with more comprehensive surveys, this paper provides a remarkably robust initial estimate of the war's effects on poverty, unemployment and internal migration.