Space Weather Observations, Modeling, and Alerts in Support of Human Exploration of Mars

TL;DR

Developing advanced space weather models and alert systems for Mars is crucial to protect future human explorers from extreme solar events and radiation hazards, requiring international collaboration and fundamental research.

Contribution

Proposes a comprehensive framework for space weather observation, modeling, and alert systems tailored for Mars, highlighting the need for new models and international cooperation.

Findings

Modeling of a Carrington-type CME at Mars shows significant surface magnetic disturbances.

Extreme space weather events could produce large radiation doses on Mars surface.

A proposed alert system could provide rapid, actionable warnings for human explorers.

Abstract

Space weather observations and modeling at Mars have begun but they must be significantly increased to support the future of Human Exploration on the Red Planet. A comprehensive space weather understanding of a planet without a global magnetosphere and a thin atmosphere is very different from our situation at Earth so there is substantial fundamental research remaining. It is expected that the development of suitable models will lead to a comprehensive operational Mars space weather alert (MSWA) system that would provide rapid dissemination of information to Earth controllers, astronauts in transit, and those in the exploration zone (EZ) on the surface by producing alerts that are delivered rapidly and are actionable. To illustrate the importance of such a system, we use a magnetohydrodynamic code to model an extreme Carrington-type coronal mass ejection (CME) event at Mars. The results show a significant induced surface field of nearly 3000 nT on the dayside that could radically affect unprotected electrical systems that would dramatically impact human survival on Mars. Other associated problems include coronal mass ejection (CME) shock-driven acceleration of solar energetic particles producing large doses of ionizing radiation at the Martian surface. In summary, along with working more closely with international partners, the next Heliophysics Decadal Survey must include a new initiative to meet expected demands for space weather forecasting in support of humans living and working on the surface of Mars. It will require significant effort to coordinate NASA and the international community contributions.