Logistic forecasting of GDP competitiveness

TL;DR

This paper models national GDP growth using logistic functions to forecast future competitiveness, predicting India will surpass the UK, Germany, and Japan by 2047 based on historical data and growth saturation effects.

Contribution

It introduces a logistic modeling approach for forecasting GDP competitiveness among major economies, providing long-term predictions based on historical data.

Findings

India's GDP overtook UK's in 2022

By 2047, India's GDP will surpass the other three countries

Logistic model effectively captures GDP growth saturation effects

Abstract

The GDP growth of national economies is modelled by the logistic function. Applying it on the GDP data of the World Bank till the year 2020, we forecast the outcome of the competitive GDP growth of Japan, Germany, UK and India, all of whose current GDPs are very close to one another. Fulfilling one of the predictions, in 2022 the GDP of India has indeed overtaken the GDP of UK. Our overall forecast is that by 2047, the GDP of India will be greater than that of the other three countries. We argue that when trade saturates, large and populous countries (like India) have the benefit of high domestic consumption to propel their GDP growth.