How Democracies Polarize: A Multilevel Perspective

TL;DR

This paper develops a multilevel framework to analyze how nested local and national elections influence political polarization in democracies, using historical US data to reveal the dynamics of opinion distribution and election stability.

Contribution

It introduces a novel multilevel opinion distribution model that captures interactions between local and national elections and their effects on polarization, addressing gaps in existing models.

Findings

Unstable elections can result from spatial opinion distributions.

Tradeoffs exist between local and national election influences.

Reduced local salience limits political opinion dimensions.

Abstract

Democracies employ elections at various scales to select officials at the corresponding levels of administration. The geographical distribution of political opinion, the policy issues delegated to each level, and the multilevel interactions between elections can all greatly impact the makeup of these representative bodies. This perspective is not new: the adoption of federal systems has been motivated by the idea that they possess desirable traits not provided by democracies on a single scale. Yet most existing models of polarization do not capture how nested local and national elections interact with heterogeneous political geographies. We begin by developing a framework to describe the multilevel distribution of opinions and analyze the flow of variance among geographic scales, applying it to historical data in the United States from 1912 to 2020. We describe how unstable elections can arise due to the spatial distribution of opinions and how tradeoffs occur between national and local elections. We also examine multi-dimensional spaces of political opinion, for which we show that a decrease in local salience can constrain the dimensions along which elections occur, preventing a federal system from serving as an effective safeguard against polarization. These analyses, based on the interactions between elections and opinion distributions at various scales, offer insights into how democracies can be strengthened to mitigate polarization and increase electoral representation.