Forecasting Patient Flows with Pandemic Induced Concept Drift using Explainable Machine Learning

TL;DR

This paper develops an explainable machine learning approach to forecast patient flows at urgent care facilities, incorporating novel real-time variables and pandemic indicators to adapt to COVID-19 disruptions.

Contribution

It introduces a suite of novel quasi-real-time variables and employs explainable AI tools to improve and interpret patient flow forecasting models during pandemics.

Findings

Voting ensemble method was most reliable

COVID-19 Alert Level and Google search terms improved forecasts

Proxy variables helped maintain accuracy during disruptions

Abstract

Accurately forecasting patient arrivals at Urgent Care Clinics (UCCs) and Emergency Departments (EDs) is important for effective resourcing and patient care. However, correctly estimating patient flows is not straightforward since it depends on many drivers. The predictability of patient arrivals has recently been further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic conditions and the resulting lockdowns. This study investigates how a suite of novel quasi-real-time variables like Google search terms, pedestrian traffic, the prevailing incidence levels of influenza, as well as the COVID-19 Alert Level indicators can both generally improve the forecasting models of patient flows and effectively adapt the models to the unfolding disruptions of pandemic conditions. This research also uniquely contributes to the body of work in this domain by employing tools from the eXplainable AI field to investigate more deeply the internal mechanics of the models than has previously been done. The Voting ensemble-based method combining machine learning and statistical techniques was the most reliable in our experiments. Our study showed that the prevailing COVID-19 Alert Level feature together with Google search terms and pedestrian traffic were effective at producing generalisable forecasts. The implications of this study are that proxy variables can effectively augment standard autoregressive features to ensure accurate forecasting of patient flows. The experiments showed that the proposed features are potentially effective model inputs for preserving forecast accuracies in the event of future pandemic outbreaks.