Investigating the Hubble Tension: Effect of Cepheid Calibration

TL;DR

This study investigates whether calibration issues with Cepheid variables contribute to the Hubble tension, finding host-dependent effects and systematic biases that suggest the tension may not be entirely due to measurement errors.

Contribution

The paper applies statistical tests to analyze Cepheid calibration data, revealing host-dependent biases and systematic effects impacting Hubble constant estimates.

Findings

Cepheid calibration shows non-Gaussian systematic effects.

H0 values differ significantly across host environments.

Neglecting metal-rich Milky Way sample does not resolve Hubble tension.

Abstract

Recent observations of Type Ia supernovae (SNe) by SH0ES collaboration (R11 and R16) diverge from the value reported by recent CMBR observations utilising the Planck satellite and application of the $\Lambda CDM$ cosmological model by at least $3 \sigma$. It is among the most challenging problems in contemporary cosmology and is known as the Hubble tension. The SNe Ia in R11 and R16 were calibrated through cepheid variables in three distinct galaxies: Milky Way, LMC, and NGC4258. Carnegie Hubble Program (CHP) observations of type Ia SNe calibrated using the tip of the red giant approach yielded a somewhat different estimate for the Hubble constant. This decreased the Hubble tension from over 3$\sigma$ to below 2$\sigma$. It is a legitimate question to answer whether there are any issues with SNe Ia calibration and to investigate whether the Hubble tension is real or not. We use statistical techniques namely, ANOVA, K-S test, and t-test to examine whether the cepheid calibration is host-dependent. Our analysis shows that (i) both R11 and R16 data suffer from non-Gaussian systematic effects, (ii) $H_0$ values in the sub-samples (different anchor-based) in both R11 and R16 groups are significantly different at a 99\% confidence level, and (iii) neglecting the metal-rich MW sample does not reduce the $H_0$ value significantly, and thus Hubble tension persists. A small reduction in the Hubble constant could be linked to the differences in the host environment. Hence instead of using a single universal relation environment based slope and zero point should be preferred.