Population and Technological Growth: Evidence from Roe v. Wade

TL;DR

This study examines how changes in birth rates, influenced by the Roe v. Wade decision, affect technological growth through increased patent activity, highlighting the link between fertility and innovation.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence that higher fertility rates, driven by policy changes, can positively impact technological growth as measured by patent output.

Findings

A one standard deviation increase in cohort size raises patents per capita by 0.24 standard deviations.

States with less pre-Roe liberalization experienced larger birth shocks.

Fertility increases are associated with higher patent production, indicating a link between population growth and innovation.

Abstract

We exploit the heterogeneous impact of the Roe v. Wade ruling by the US Supreme Court, which ruled most abortion restrictions unconstitutional. Our identifying assumption is that states which had not liberalized their abortion laws prior to Roe would experience a negative birth shock of greater proportion than states which had undergone pre-Roe reforms. We estimate the difference-in-difference in births and use estimated births as an exogenous treatment variable to predict patents per capita. Our results show that one standard deviation increase in cohort starting population increases per capita patents by 0.24 standard deviation. These results suggest that at the margins, increasing fertility can increase patent production. Insofar as patent production is a sufficient proxy for technological growth, increasing births has a positive impact on technological growth. This paper and its results do not pertain to the issue of abortion itself.