A Population Dynamics Approach to the Distribution of Space Debris in Low Earth Orbit

TL;DR

This paper introduces a diffusion-collision model to predict and analyze the growth and distribution of space debris in Low Earth Orbit, emphasizing the impact of launch policies and cleanup strategies on future collision risks.

Contribution

It presents a novel continuum model for space debris evolution in LEO, incorporating policy effects and validated with real data to inform mitigation strategies.

Findings

Model accurately predicts debris growth trends

Launch policies significantly influence debris distribution

Cleanup strategies can effectively reduce collision risks

Abstract

The presence of debris in Earth's orbit poses a significant risk to human activity in outer space. This debris population continues to grow due to ground launches, loss of external parts from space ships, and uncontrollable collisions between objects. A computationally feasible continuum model for the growth of the debris population and its spatial distribution is therefore critical. Here we propose a diffusion-collision model for the evolution of debris density in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) and its dependence on ground-launch policy. We parametrize this model and test it against data from publicly available object catalogs to examine timescales for uncontrolled growth. Finally, we consider sensible launch policies and cleanup strategies and how they reduce the future risk of collisions with active satellites or space ships.