On the Strength and Duration of Solar Cycle 25: A Novel Quantile-based Superposed Epoch Analysis

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new quantile-based superposed epoch analysis method for predicting solar cycle 25's strength and timing, indicating it will be a modest cycle with a peak in December 2024, validated by retrospective analysis.

Contribution

It presents a novel, adaptable quantile-based analysis technique for solar cycle prediction, outperforming baseline models in retrospective tests.

Findings

Cycle 25 predicted to be modest, within the 25th percentile.

Peak likely in December 2024 with a 13-month average of -130.

Model outperforms baseline in 75% of retrospective forecasts.

Abstract

Sunspot number (SSN) is an important - albeit nuanced - parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum can have important implications for space weather planning. Forecasts for the strength of solar cycle 25 have varied considerably, from it being very weak, to one of the strongest cycles in recorded history. In this study, we develop a novel quantile based superposed epoch analysis that can be updated on a monthly basis, and which currently predicts that solar cycle 25 will be a very modest cycle (within the 25th percentile of all numbered cycles), with a monthly-averaged (13-month average) peak of - 130 (110) likely occurring in December, 2024. We validate the model by performing retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) for the previous 24 cycles, finding that it out performs the baseline (reference) model (the average cycle) 75% of the time.