Extended analysis of the effects of the Sumatra topography on downstream low-level vortex development over the Indian Ocean

TL;DR

This study extends previous research by analyzing 10 years of ERA5 data to understand how Sumatra's topography influences low-level vortex development over the Indian Ocean, highlighting the roles of MJO phases and anomalous zonal flows.

Contribution

It provides a longer-term analysis confirming the influence of Sumatra's topography on vortex formation and identifies the impact of MJO phases and climate anomalies on vortex counts.

Findings

Vortex counts are highest during MJO phase 1 with strong easterlies.

Secondary peak in vortex counts occurs during MJO phase 4 with westerlies.

Anomalous easterlies increase vortex formation, especially off southern Sumatra.

Abstract

Fine et al. (2016, hereafter F16) investigated the potential role of Sumatra Island, as well as the Malay Peninsula and Java, in creating terrain-induced circulations over the Indian Ocean (IO) that subsequently develop into tropical cyclones (TCs). Applying sophisticated vortex tracking software to 2.5 yrs of model analyses, F16 found four regions downstream of topographic features in the Maritime Continent to be prolific generators of low-level cyclonic vortices (123/yr). This present study extends the limited analyses of F16 by applying a similar approach to 10 yrs (2008-2017) of ERA5 analyses. While the 2.5-yr period which F16 studied was slightly (8%) more active in terms of vortex production than the 10-yr period, in general the findings of F16 are representative of the longer-term record with 80% of all shed vortices occurring with easterly low-level (925 hPa) flow over the hotspot regions. Additional analysis of the 10-yr record found that vortex counts are highest near MJO phase 1 when low-level easterlies are strongest over the maritime continent region. A secondary peak in vortex counts occurs during MJO phase 4 when low-level westerlies were present near the equator west of Sumatra. This suggests that low-level westerly surges on the equator impinging on Sumatra associated with the MJO contribute to an increase in wake vortex development. While the frequency of vortex genesis over the four hotspot regions is strongly tied to the annual cycle of winds, periods with anomalous zonal flow are shown to impact vortex counts. This is most apparent in the region off the southern tip of Sumatra where vortex counts were 4 times higher during periods of anomalous easterlies compared to periods with anomalous westerlies. In this region positive (negative) ENSO and Indian-Ocean Dipole conditions drive anomalous easterlies (westerlies) which impact vortex formation rates.