On the number of genealogical ancestors tracing to the source groups of an admixed population

TL;DR

This paper models the genealogical ancestors of admixed populations, specifically African Americans, to estimate the number of ancestors from source populations and understand historical admixture events.

Contribution

It introduces a mechanistic genealogical model to quantify the number of ancestors from different source populations in admixed groups.

Findings

Expected African ancestors: 314 for 1960-1965 cohort.

Expected European ancestors: 51 for 1960-1965 cohort.

European ancestors likely born after 1835.

Abstract

In genetically admixed populations, admixed individuals possess ancestry from multiple source groups. Studies of human genetic admixture frequently estimate ancestry components corresponding to fractions of individual genomes that trace to specific ancestral populations. However, the same numerical ancestry fraction can represent a wide array of admixture scenarios. Using a mechanistic model of admixture, we characterize admixture genealogically: how many distinct ancestors from the source populations does the admixture represent? We consider African Americans, for whom continent-level estimates produce a 75-85% value for African ancestry on average and 15-25% for European ancestry. Genetic studies together with key features of African-American demographic history suggest ranges for model parameters. Using the model, we infer that if genealogical lineages of a random African American born during 1960-1965 are traced back until they reach members of source populations, the expected number of genealogical lines terminating with African individuals is 314, and the expected number terminating in Europeans is 51. Across discrete generations, the peak number of African genealogical ancestors occurs for birth cohorts from the early 1700s. The probability exceeds 50% that at least one European ancestor was born more recently than 1835. Our genealogical perspective can contribute to further understanding the admixture processes that underlie admixed populations. For African Americans, the results provide insight both on how many of the ancestors of a typical African American might have been forcibly displaced in the Transatlantic Slave Trade and on how many separate European admixture events might exist in a typical African-American genealogy.