Fleet-Level Environmental Assessments for Feasibility of Aviation Emission Reduction Goals

TL;DR

This paper uses simulation models to evaluate whether future aviation CO2 emissions can meet international reduction goals, highlighting challenges in achieving 2050 targets amid rising air travel demand.

Contribution

It introduces a simulation-based framework for assessing fleet-level emissions and explores the feasibility of meeting aviation emission reduction targets.

Findings

Achieving 2050 emission levels at or below 2005 is challenging with increasing demand.

Neutral CO2 growth after 2020 may be feasible under certain scenarios.

Emissions reduction is difficult but possible with technological and operational improvements.

Abstract

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is one of several organizations that have presented goals for future CO2 emissions from commercial aviation with the intent of alleviating the associated environmental impacts. These goals include attaining carbon-neutral growth in the year 2020 and total aviation CO2 emissions in 2050 equal to 50% of 2005 aviation CO2 emissions. This paper presents the use of a simulation-based approach to predict future CO2 emissions from commercial aviation based upon a set of scenarios developed as part of the Aircraft Technology Modeling and Assessment project within ASCENT, the FAA Center of Excellence for Alternative Jet Fuels and the Environment. Results indicate that, in future scenarios with increasing demand for air travel, it is difficult to reduce CO2 emissions in 2050 to levels equal to or below 2005 levels, although neutral CO2 growth after 2020 may be possible.