River interlinking alters land-atmosphere feedback and changes the Indian summer monsoon

TL;DR

This study reveals that river interlinking in India influences land-atmosphere feedback mechanisms, alters monsoon rainfall patterns, and may exacerbate water stress, challenging assumptions of basin independence and highlighting the need for impact assessments.

Contribution

It demonstrates the existence of causal land-atmosphere pathways across Indian basins and shows how interlinking affects regional climate and water availability.

Findings

Causal pathways exist across basins due to land-atmosphere feedback.

Irrigation from interlinking reduces September rainfall by up to 12%.

Drying is more pronounced during La Nina years.

Abstract

Massive river interlinking projects are proposed to offset observed increasing trends of extremes, such as droughts and floods in India, the second highest populated country.These river interlinking projects involve water transfer from surplus to deficit river basins through reservoirs and canals, but without an in-depth understanding of the hydro-meteorological consequences. Using information theory-based causal delineation techniques, a coupled regional climate model, and multiple reanalysis datasets, we show that causal pathways exist across different basins in India due to strong land-atmosphere feedback, which disputes the generally practiced assumption of hydrological independence between river basins. The causal information from one basin's land crosses the basin boundary through the atmosphere. We further find that increased irrigation from the transferred water reduces mean rainfall in September by up to 12% in many parts of India most of which are already water stressed.We observe more drying in La Nina years as compared to El Nino years. Reduced September precipitation can lead to drying of rivers post monsoon augmenting the water stress across country rendering interlinking dysfunctional. These findings demand model-guided impact assessment studies of large scale hydrological projects across the globe considering land-atmosphere interactions.