Equilibria analysis of a networked bivirus epidemic model using Poincar\'e--Hopf and Manifold Theory

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the complex equilibrium patterns of a two-virus epidemic model on networks, employing advanced topological methods to establish bounds and stability properties of coexistence states.

Contribution

It introduces novel counting and stability results for coexistence equilibria in a bivirus network model using Poincaré-Hopf and Morse theory, addressing gaps in existing research.

Findings

Lower bounds on the number of coexistence equilibria

Properties of local stability and instability of equilibria

Numerical demonstrations of multiple attractors and coexistence states

Abstract

This paper considers a deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) networked bivirus epidemic model (termed the bivirus model for short), in which two competing viruses spread through a set of populations (nodes) connected by two graphs, which may be different if the two viruses have different transmission pathways. The networked dynamics can give rise to complex equilibria patterns, and most current results identify conditions on the model parameters for convergence to the healthy equilibrium (where both viruses are extinct) or a boundary equilibrium (where one virus is endemic and the other is extinct). However, there are only limited results on coexistence equilibria (where both viruses are endemic). This paper establishes a set of ``counting'' results which provide lower bounds on the number of coexistence equilibria, and perhaps more importantly, establish properties on the local stability/instability properties of these equilibria. In order to do this, we employ the Poincar\'e-Hopf Theorem but with significant modifications to overcome several challenges arising from the bivirus system model, such as the fact that the system dynamics do not evolve on a manifold in the typical sense required to apply Poincar\'e-Hopf Theory. Subsequently, Morse inequalities are used to tighten the counting results, under the reasonable assumption that the bivirus system is a Morse-Smale dynamical system. Numerical examples are provided which demonstrate the presence of multiple attractor equilibria, and multiple coexistence equilibria.