Avoiding the "Great Filter": Extraterrestrial Life and Humanity's Future in the Universe

TL;DR

This paper explores the concept of the Great Filter as a potential explanation for the silence of extraterrestrial civilizations, analyzing existential risks that could threaten humanity's future and proposing reforms to avoid catastrophic outcomes.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive framework of natural and anthropogenic hazards as potential Great Filter scenarios and emphasizes the need for societal reforms to prevent existential disasters.

Findings

Multiple calamity candidates identified, including nuclear war, pandemics, AI, asteroid impacts, and climate change.

High risk factors lack critical adjustments, increasing threat levels.

Societal introspection and reforms are necessary to navigate the Great Filter.

Abstract

Our Universe is a vast, tantalizing enigma - a mystery that has aroused humankind's innate curiosity for eons. Begging questions on alien lifeforms have been thus far unfruitful, even with the bounding advancements we have embarked upon in recent years. Coupled with logical assumption and calculations such as made by Dr. Frank Drake starting in the early 1960s, evidence in the millions should exist in our galaxy alone, and yet we've produced no clear affirmation in practice. So, where is everybody? In one sense, the seeming silence of the Universe past terra firma reveals layers of stubborn human limitation. Even as ambitious programs such as SETI aim to solve these knotty challenges, the results have turned up rather pessimistic possibilities. An existential disaster may lay in wait as our society advances exponentially towards space exploration, acting as the Great Filter: a phenomenon that wipes out civilizations before they can encounter each other, which may explain the cosmic silence. In this article, we propose several possible doomsday-type scenarios, including anthropogenic and natural hazards, both of which can be prevented with reforms in individual, institutional and intrinsic behaviors. We take into account multiple calamity candidates: nuclear warfare, pathogens and pandemics, artificial intelligence, asteroid and comet impacts, and climate change. Each of these categories have various influences but lack critical adjustment to accommodate to their high risk. We have long ignored the quickly encroaching Great Filter, even as it threatens to consume us entirely, especially as our rate of progress correlates directly to the severity of our fall. This indicates a necessary period of introspection, followed by appropriate refinements to properly approach our predicament, and see our way through it.