A nation-wide experiment: fuel tax cuts and almost free public transport for three months in Germany -- Report 4 Third wave results

TL;DR

This study analyzes the behavioral and policy impacts of Germany's temporary fuel tax cuts and cheap public transport during spring 2022, revealing significant potential for increased travel pass adoption and mobility changes.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence from a large-scale natural experiment on how transport policy measures influence travel behavior and pass ownership in Germany.

Findings

Over 60% of 9EUR-Ticket owners would buy a new, more expensive pass.

Estimated 20% increase in travel pass ownership due to policy measures.

High inflation and policy announcements influence mobility and travel decisions.

Abstract

In spring 2022, the German federal government agreed on a set of measures that aimed at reducing households' financial burden resulting from a recent price increase, especially in energy and mobility. These measures included among others, a nation-wide public transport ticket for 9EUR per month and a fuel tax cut that reduced fuel prices by more than 15%. In transportation policy and travel behavior research this is an almost unprecedented behavioral experiment. It allows to study not only behavioral responses in mode choice and induced demand but also to assess the effectiveness of transport policy instruments. We observe this natural experiment with a three-wave survey and an app-based travel diary on a sample 2'263 individuals; for the Munich Study, 919 participants in the survey-and-app group and 425 in the survey-only group have been successfully recruited, while 919 participants have been recruited through a professional panel provider to obtain a representative nation-wide reference group for the three-wave survey. In this fourth report we present the results of the third wave. At the end of the study, all three surveys have been completed by 1'484 participants and 642 participants completed all three surveys and used the travel diary throughout the entire study. Based on our results we conclude that when offering a 49EUR-Ticket as a successor to the 9~EUR-Ticket and a local travel pass for 30EUR/month more than 60% of all 9~EUR-Ticket owners would buy one of the two new travel passes. In other words, a substantial increase in travel pass ownership in Germany can be expected, with our modest estimate being around 20%. With the announcement of the introduction of a successor ticket in 2023 as well as with the prevailing high inflation, this study will continue into the year 2023 to monitor the impact on mobility and daily activities.