Voting From Jail

TL;DR

This study uses new jail data to estimate how incarceration during 2020 affected voting, revealing significant reductions especially among Black voters and highlighting racial disparities and the need for voting rights reforms for incarcerated individuals.

Contribution

It provides causal estimates of jail incarceration effects on voting during 2020 using individual-level data and timing analysis, a novel approach in this context.

Findings

Incarceration reduced 2020 voting likelihood by 46% for registered voters.

Black voters experienced a 78% decrease in voting likelihood when incarcerated during voting days.

No effects were found on 2012 or 2016 turnout, indicating a specific impact in 2020.

Abstract

We leverage new data on daily individual-level jail records and exploit the timing of incarceration to estimate the causal effects of jail incarceration on voting from jail in 2020. We find that registered voters booked into county jails for the full duration of 2020 voting days were on average 46% less likely to vote in 2020, relative to registered voters booked into the same jails within 7-42 days after Election Day. The estimated negative effect of incarceration on voting from jail was much larger for Black registered voters, who were 78% less likely to vote in 2020 if booked into county jails for the full duration of 2020 voting days, relative to Black registered voters booked into the same jails just after Election Day. Placebo tests indicate no effects of 2020 jail incarceration on the 2012 or 2016 turnout of registered voters. We find inconsistent effects of jail incarceration on voter registration in 2020, and effect sizes of comparable magnitude for turnout unconditional on registration status. Our findings reveal the pressing need to enable voting-eligible incarcerated individuals to exercise their constitutional right to vote, and to address troubling racial disparities in the effect of jail incarceration on the exercise of the right to vote.