Power in the Pipeline

TL;DR

This paper empirically analyzes how natural gas pipelines influence political power and regime stability, highlighting network effects and the role of central nodes in prolonging authoritarian rule.

Contribution

It provides the first comprehensive empirical evidence linking gas pipeline network centrality to increased ruler power and reduced political sanctions.

Findings

Gas betweenness-centrality correlates with longer ruler tenure.

Connected gas trade partners are less likely to impose sanctions.

Fossil fuel infrastructure impacts political stability and regime change.

Abstract

This paper provides the first comprehensive empirical analysis of the role of natural gas for the domestic and international distribution of power. The crucial role of pipelines for the trade of natural gas determines a set of network effects that are absent for other natural resources such as oil and minerals. Gas rents are not limited to producers but also accrue to key players occupying central nodes in the gas network. Drawing on our new gas pipeline data, this paper shows that gas betweenness-centrality of a country increases substantially the ruler's grip on power as measured by leader turnover. A main mechanism at work is the reluctance of connected gas trade partners to impose sanctions, meaning that bad behavior of gas-central leaders is tolerated for longer before being sanctioned. Overall, this reinforces the notion that fossil fuels are not just poison for the environment but also for political pluralism and healthy regime turnover.