Applicability of Hubbert model to global mining industry: Interpretations and insights

TL;DR

This paper evaluates the Hubbert model's effectiveness in describing the global mining industry, introducing a new visualization method called 'Hubbert's map' to assess resource depletion and model validity.

Contribution

It provides a pedagogical overview of the Hubbert model, assesses its applicability to 20 mining elements, and introduces a novel graphical representation for analysis.

Findings

The Hubbert model can describe certain trends in mineral extraction.

The 'Hubbert's map' visualization aids in interpreting model predictions.

Model validity varies across different minerals.

Abstract

The Hubert's model has been introduced in 1956 as a phenomenological description of the time evolution of US oil fields production. It has since then acquired a vast notoriety as a conceptual approach to resource depletion. It is often invoked nowadays in the context of the energy transition to question the limitations induced by the finitude of mineral stocks. Yet, its validity is often controversial despite its popularity. This paper offers a pedagogical introduction to the model, assesses its ability to describe the current evolution of 20 mining elements, and discusses the nature and robustness of conclusions drawn from Hubbert's model considered either as a for cast or as a foresight tool. We propose a novel way to represent graphically these conclusions as a "Hubbert's map" which offers direct visualization of their main features.