SIR-HUXt -- a particle filter data assimilation scheme for assimilating CME time-elongation profiles

TL;DR

This paper introduces SIR-HUXt, a data assimilation scheme combining a particle filter with the HUXt solar wind model, to improve CME prediction accuracy using heliospheric imager data, demonstrating significant uncertainty reductions in CME arrival time and speed.

Contribution

The paper presents the novel integration of a sequential importance resampling scheme with the HUXt model for CME data assimilation, enhancing forecast precision.

Findings

SIR-HUXt constrains CME speed effectively.

It reduces CME transit time uncertainty by 69%.

It decreases arrival speed uncertainty by 63%.

Abstract

We present the development of SIR-HUXt, the integration of a sequential importance resampling (SIR) data assimilation scheme with the HUXt solar wind model. SIR-HUXt is designed to assimilate the time-elongation profiles of CME fronts in the low heliosphere, such as those typically extracted from heliospheric imager data returned by the STEREO, Parker Solar Probe, and Solar Orbiter missions. We use Observing System Simulation Experiments to explore the performance of SIR-HUXt for a simple synthetic CME scenario of a fully Earth directed CME flowing through a uniform ambient solar wind, where the CME is initialised with the average observed CME speed and width. These experiments are performed for a range of observer locations, from 20 deg to 90 deg behind Earth, spanning the L5 point where ESA's future Vigil space weather monitor will return heliospheric imager data for operational space weather forecasting. We show that SIR-HUXt performs well at constraining the CME speed, and has some success at constraining the CME longitude. The CME width is largely unconstrained by the SIR-HUXt assimilations, and more experiments are required to determine if this is due to this specific CME scenario, or is a general feature of assimilating time-elongation profiles. Rank-histograms suggest that the SIR-HUXt ensembles are well calibrated, with no clear indications of bias or under/over dispersion. Improved constraints on the initial CME speed lead directly to improvements in the CME transit time to Earth and arrival speed. For an observer in the L5 region, SIR-HUXt returned a 69% reduction in the CME transit time uncertainty, and a 63% reduction in the arrival speed uncertainty. This suggests SIR-HUXt has potential to improve the real-world representivity of HUXt simulations, and therefore has potential to reduce the uncertainty of CME arrival time hindcasts and forecasts.