Adaptation in a heterogeneous environment II: To be three or not to be

TL;DR

This paper models phenotypically structured populations across multiple patches with migration, analyzing how the number and arrangement of patches influence population persistence or extinction.

Contribution

It provides a rigorous mathematical analysis of multi-patch population models, revealing complex effects of patch number and phenotypic optima on persistence.

Findings

The sign of the principal eigenvalue determines persistence or extinction.

Adding a patch can either promote or hinder population persistence.

The effect of increasing patches depends on the phenotypic positions of optima.

Abstract

We propose a model to describe the adaptation of a phenotypically structured population in a $H$-patch environment connected by migration, with each patch associated with a different phenotypic optimum, and we perform a rigorous mathematical analysis of this model. We show that the large-time behaviour of the solution (persistence or extinction) depends on the sign of a principal eigenvalue, $\lambda_H$, and we study the dependency of $\lambda_H$ with respect to $H$. This analysis sheds new light on the effect of increasing the number of patches on the persistence of a population, which has implications in agroecology and for understanding zoonoses; in such cases we consider a pathogenic population and the patches correspond to different host species. The occurrence of a springboard effect, where the addition of a patch contributes to persistence, or on the contrary the emergence of a detrimental effect by increasing the number of patches on the persistence, depends in a rather complex way on the respective positions in the phenotypic space of the optimal phenotypes associated with each patch. From a mathematical point of view, an important part of the difficulty in dealing with $H\ge 3$, compared to $H=1$ or $H=2$, comes from the lack of symmetry. Our results, which are based on a fixed point theorem, comparison principles, integral estimates, variational arguments, rearrangement techniques, and numerical simulations, provide a better understanding of these dependencies. In particular, we propose a precise characterisation of the situations where the addition of a third patch increases or decreases the chances of persistence, compared to a situation with only two patches.