Understanding the illicit drug distribution in England: a data-centric approach to the County Lines Model

TL;DR

This study employs spatial models to analyze the territorial logic of County Lines drug distribution in England, highlighting key variables like knife crime and hospital admissions, and revealing distribution patterns centered in London and the South of England.

Contribution

It introduces a data-centric approach using multiple spatial models to understand the territorial dynamics of County Lines drug distribution in Great Britain.

Findings

Knife crime and hospital admissions are key variables in distribution patterns.

Distribution is concentrated in London and the South of England.

Spatial models effectively reveal territorial logic of drug operators.

Abstract

The County Lines Model (CLM) is a relatively new illicit drugs distribution method found in Great Britain. The CLM has brought modern slavery and public health issues, while challenging the law-enforcement capacity to act, as coordination between different local police forces is necessary. Our objective is to understand the territorial logic behind the line operators when establishing a connection between two places. We use three different spatial models (gravity, radiation and retail models), as each one of them understands flow from place i to j in a different way. Using public data from the Metropolitan Police of London, we train and cross-validate the models to understand which of the different physical and socio-demographic variables are considered when establishing a connection. We analyse hospital admissions by drugs, disposable household income, police presence and knife crime events, in addition to the population of a particular place and the distance and travel times between two different. Our results show that knife crime events and hospital admissions by misuse of drugs are the most important variables. We also find that London operators distribute to the territory known as the "South" of England, as negligible presence of them is observed outside of it.