Neurino Cadence of TXS~0506+056 Consistent with Supermassive Binary Origin

TL;DR

This paper investigates the neutrino emissions from blazar TXS 0506+056, proposing they originate from a supermassive binary black hole system, and predicts gravitational wave signals detectable by LISA, with implications for future observations.

Contribution

It introduces a model linking neutrino cadence to a supermassive binary black hole origin and calculates the gravitational wave strain, suggesting detectability by LISA and predicting future neutrino flares.

Findings

Neutrino cadence consistent with SMBBH origin for certain mass ratios.

Predicted gravitational wave signals detectable by LISA for specific black hole masses.

Forecasted neutrino flares between 2019-2021 and 2023-2026.

Abstract

On September 18, 2022, an alert by ceCube indicated that a ~170TeV neutrino arrived in directional coincidence with the blazar TXS 0506+056. This event adds to two previous ones: a neutrino alert from its direction on September 22, 2017, and a 3sigma signature of a dozen neutrinos in 2014/2015. deBruijn 2020 showed that these two previous neutrino emission episodes could be due to a supermassive binary black hole (SMBBH) where jet precession close to final coalescence results in periodic emission. This model predicted a new emission episode consistent with the September 18, 2022 neutrino observation. Here, we show that the neutrino cadence of TXS 0506+056 is consistent with a SMBBH origin with mass ratios q<0.3 for a total black hole mass of M>3e8Msun. For the first time, we calculate the characteristic strain of the gravitational wave emission of the binary, and show that the merger could be detectable by LISA for black hole masses <5e8Msun if the mass ratios are in the range 0.1<q<0.3. We predict that there can be a neutrino flare existing in the still to be analyzed IceCube data peaking some time between 08/2019 and 01/2021 if a precessing jet is responsible for all three detected emission episodes. The next flare is expected to peak in the period 01/2023 to 08/2026. Further observation will make it possible to constrain the mass ratio as a function of the black hole mass more precisely and would open the window toward the preparation of the detection of SMBBH mergers.