The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Future of Telecommuting in the United States

TL;DR

This study examines the rise of telecommuting in the US due to COVID-19, revealing significant increases in remote work expectations and intentions, but also highlighting persistent limitations in its potential to reduce peak transport demand.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence on the long-term effects of COVID-19 on telecommuting patterns and identifies demographic factors influencing remote work options.

Findings

40-50% of workers expect to telecommute post-pandemic

90-95% of pandemic telecommuters plan to continue regularly

About half of workers expect to remain unable to telecommute

Abstract

This study focuses on an important transport-related long-term effect of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States: an increase in telecommuting. Analyzing a nationally representative panel survey of adults, we find that 40-50% of workers expect to telecommute at least a few times per month post-pandemic, up from 24% pre-COVID. If given the option, 90-95% of those who first telecommuted during the pandemic plan to continue the practice regularly. We also find that new telecommuters are demographically similar to pre-COVID telecommuters. Both pre- and post-COVID, higher educational attainment and income, together with certain job categories, largely determine whether workers have the option to telecommute. Despite growth in telecommuting, approximately half of workers expect to remain unable to telecommute and between 2/3 and 3/4 of workers expect their post-pandemic telecommuting patterns to be unchanged from their pre-COVID patterns. This limits the contribution telecommuting can make to reducing peak hour transport demand.