Predicting the power grid frequency of European islands

TL;DR

This paper investigates the predictability of power grid frequency in European islands, highlighting differences among islands and the data requirements for accurate forecasting, which is crucial for microgrid development and safe grid operation.

Contribution

It provides the first systematic analysis of island power grid frequency predictability using real measurements, comparing multiple islands and establishing data length requirements for effective forecasting.

Findings

Balearic Islands are highly predictable.

Iceland's frequency is more difficult to forecast.

2-4 weeks of data improve prediction accuracy.

Abstract

Modelling, forecasting and overall understanding of the dynamics of the power grid and its frequency are essential for the safe operation of existing and future power grids. Much previous research was focused on large continental areas, while small systems, such as islands are less well-studied. These natural island systems are ideal testing environments for microgrid proposals and artificially islanded grid operation. In the present paper, we utilize measurements of the power grid frequency obtained in European islands: the Faroe Islands, Ireland, the Balearic Islands and Iceland and investigate how their frequency can be predicted, compared to the Nordic power system, acting as a reference. The Balearic islands are found to be particularly deterministic and easy to predict in contrast to hard-to-predict Iceland. Furthermore, we show that typically 2-4 weeks of data are needed to improve prediction performance beyond simple benchmarks.