Using Multivariate Linear Regression for Biochemical Oxygen Demand Prediction in Waste Water

TL;DR

This study evaluates the effectiveness of multivariate linear regression in predicting biochemical oxygen demand in wastewater using key water quality parameters, demonstrating its potential for accurate estimation with selected inputs.

Contribution

The paper demonstrates that MLR can accurately predict BOD in wastewater using four specific water quality parameters, with minimal improvement from increased training data.

Findings

MLR achieved up to 87.5% accuracy in BOD prediction.

Increasing training data beyond 80% yields limited accuracy gains.

Selected parameters strongly correlate with BOD for effective modeling.

Abstract

There exist opportunities for Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR) in the prediction of Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) in waste water, using the diverse water quality parameters as the input variables. The goal of this work is to examine the capability of MLR in prediction of BOD in waste water through four input variables: Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Nitrogen, Fecal Coliform and Total Coliform. The four input variables have higher correlation strength to BOD out of the seven parameters examined for the strength of correlation. Machine Learning (ML) was done with both 80% and 90% of the data as the training set and 20% and 10% as the test set respectively. MLR performance was evaluated through the coefficient of correlation (r), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the percentage accuracy in prediction of BOD. The performance indices for the input variables of Dissolved Oxygen, Nitrogen, Fecal Coliform and Total Coliform in prediction of BOD are: RMSE=6.77mg/L, r=0.60 and accuracy 70.3% for training dataset of 80% and RMSE=6.74mg/L, r=0.60 and accuracy of 87.5% for training set of 90% of the dataset. It was found that increasing the percentage of the training set above 80% of the dataset improved the accuracy of the model only but did not have a significant impact on the prediction capacity of the model. The results showed that MLR model could be successfully employed in the estimation of BOD in waste water using appropriately selected input parameters.