Sentiment is all you need to win US Presidential elections

TL;DR

This paper investigates how sentiment analysis of election speeches can predict US presidential election outcomes, focusing on Donald Trump and Joe Biden in 2020, to inform campaign strategies.

Contribution

It applies advanced NLP sentiment analysis to election speeches to identify factors influencing voter decisions, offering insights into campaign communication effectiveness.

Findings

Sentiment differences correlate with election outcomes

Speech sentiment analysis reveals voter persuasion factors

Insights can improve future campaign messaging strategies

Abstract

Election speeches play an integral role in communicating the vision and mission of the candidates. From lofty promises to mud-slinging, the electoral candidate accounts for all. However, there remains an open question about what exactly wins over the voters. In this work, we used state-of-the-art natural language processing methods to study the speeches and sentiments of the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, and Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, fighting for the 2020 US Presidential election. Comparing the racial dichotomy of the United States, we analyze what led to the victory and defeat of the different candidates. We believe this work will inform the election campaigning strategy and provide a basis for communicating to diverse crowds.