Non-maturing deposits modelling in a Ornstein-Uhlenbeck framework

TL;DR

This paper introduces a multivariate Le9vy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model for non-maturing deposits, capturing multiple sources of randomness and rare events, with practical application to Italian banking data.

Contribution

It presents a novel multivariate Le9vy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process incorporating interest rates, deposit rates, and volumes, including severe outliers for better risk management.

Findings

Model captures rare severe events effectively.

Operational procedure for scenario simulation implemented.

Application demonstrated with Italian banking data.

Abstract

This paper builds a multivariate L\'evy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process for the management of non-maturing deposits, that are a major source of funding for banks. The contribution of the paper is both theoretical and operational. On the theoretical side, the novelty of this model is to include three independent sources of randomness in a L\'evy framework: market interest rates, deposit rates and deposit volumes. The choice of a L\'evy background driving process allows us to model rare but severe events. On the operational side, we propose a procedure to include severe volume outflows with positive probability in future scenarios simulation, explaining its implementation with an illustrative example using Italian banking sector data.