Stochastic Assessment of Acceleration Probability Density Function for Parametric Rolling Using Moment Method

TL;DR

This paper introduces a stochastic method to estimate the probability density functions of roll angular and cargo lateral accelerations in container ships, aiding in understanding large roll events and cargo loss risks.

Contribution

It presents a novel approach combining moment calculations and PDF shape estimation for ship accelerations, improving risk assessment methods.

Findings

Derived moment values for accelerations using expectation linearity

Proposed PDF shapes and coefficients based on moments

Method enables probabilistic analysis of ship accelerations

Abstract

Container ships encounter large roll angles and high acceleration, and container loss remains a problem. This study proposes a method for calculating the probability density function~(PDF) of roll angular and cargo lateral accelerations. First, the moment values of these accelerations are derived using the linearity of expectation and the validity of this method is examined. Second, the PDF shapes of these accelerations are proposed and their coefficients are determined using the obtained moment values. Our proposed method can be used to derive the PDFs of roll angular and cargo lateral accelerations.