The Inferred Abundance of Interstellar Objects of Technological Origin

TL;DR

This paper presents a model to estimate the total number of interstellar objects, natural or artificial, based on their observed density and velocity, with applications to objects like 'Oumuamua and interstellar meteors.

Contribution

It introduces a novel model for estimating interstellar object abundance, including artificial objects, using observational data and applies it to specific interstellar objects.

Findings

Estimated total number of interstellar objects based on observed data

Artificial objects could be undercounted by a factor of 10^16

Applied model to 'Oumuamua and interstellar meteors

Abstract

The local detection rate of interstellar objects can allow for estimations of the total number of similar objects bound by the Milky Way thin disk. If interstellar objects of artificial origin are discovered, the estimated total number of objects can be lower by a factor of about $10^{16}$ if they target the habitable zone around the Sun. We propose a model for calculating the quantity of natural or artificial interstellar objects of interest based on the object's velocity and observed density. We then apply the model to the case of chemically propelled rockets from extraterrestrial civilizations. Finally, we apply the model to three previously discovered interstellar objects -- the object 'Oumuamua of unknown origin and the first interstellar meteors CNEOS 2014-01-08 and CNEOS 2017-03-09.