The value of fusion energy to a decarbonized United States electric grid

TL;DR

This study evaluates the economic competitiveness of pulsed tokamak fusion energy within a decarbonized US electric grid, identifying cost thresholds and operational factors influencing its market penetration.

Contribution

It provides the first detailed cost threshold analysis for pulsed tokamak fusion plants in a future US decarbonized electricity system.

Findings

Capital cost threshold for 100 GW fusion capacity: $3000-$7200/kW

Fusion penetration increases rapidly as costs decrease

Operational costs and competition with fission influence fusion value more than pulse cycle parameters

Abstract

Fusion could be a part of future decarbonized electricity systems, but it will need to compete with other technologies. In particular, pulsed tokamak plants have a unique operational mode, and evaluating which characteristics make them economically competitive can help select between design pathways. Using a capacity expansion and operations model, we determined cost thresholds for pulsed tokamaks to reach a range of penetration levels in a future decarbonized US Eastern Interconnection. The required capital cost to reach a fusion capacity of 100 GW varied from \$3000/kW to \$7200/kW, and the equilibrium penetration increases rapidly with decreasing cost. The value per unit power capacity depends on the variable operational cost and on the cost of its competition, particularly fission, much more than on the pulse cycle parameters. These findings can therefore provide initial cost targets for fusion more generally in the United States.