A Polarized Temporal Network Model to Study the Spread of Recurrent Epidemic Diseases in a Partially Vaccinated Population

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel multi-population temporal network model to analyze how vaccination, testing, and human behavior influence the spread and control of recurrent epidemic diseases like COVID-19, emphasizing the impact of social polarization.

Contribution

It develops a new framework that decouples vaccine effectiveness and incorporates social homophily, providing analytical insights into epidemic thresholds and outbreak dynamics.

Findings

Vaccination reduces hospital pressure but may enable resurgent outbreaks.

Testing campaigns are crucial for disease eradication.

Social polarization significantly affects outbreak control.

Abstract

Motivated by massive outbreaks of COVID-19 that occurred even in populations with high vaccine uptake, we propose a novel multi-population temporal network model for the spread of recurrent epidemic diseases. We study the effect of human behavior, testing, and vaccination campaigns on the control of local outbreaks and infection prevalence. Our modeling framework decouples the vaccine effectiveness in protecting against transmission and the development of severe symptoms. Furthermore, the framework accounts for the polarizing effect of the decision to vaccinate and captures homophily, i.e., the tendency of people to interact with like-minded individuals. By means of a mean-field approach, we analytically derive the epidemic threshold. Our theoretical results suggest that, while vaccination campaigns reduce pressure on hospitals, they might facilitate resurgent outbreaks, highlighting the key role that testing campaigns may have in eradicating the disease. Numerical simulations are then employed to confirm and extend our theoretical findings to more realistic scenarios. Our numerical and analytical results agree that vaccination is not sufficient to achieve full eradication, without employing massive testing campaigns or relying on the population's responsibility. Furthermore, we show that homophily plays a critical role in the control of local outbreaks, highlighting the peril of a polarized network structure.